Quinte Conservation is advising residents of the potential for swollen creeks and nuisance flooding due to expected rain and rain on melting snow.
Weather forecasts for the Quinte Watershed predict 25-35 mm of rainfall in the southern portions of the watershed and Prince Edward County on Tuesday. Areas north of Hwy 7 are expected to receive 25-30 mm of rainfall. Warm temperatures starting on Wednesday and into the weekend will continue significant snowpack reductions north of Highway 7. The snow in Prince Edward County has already melted.
Watershed creeks and rivers are currently swollen from recent rain and snowmelt. Projected weather is expected to cause water levels to rise and generate nuisance flooding around small watercourses, urban areas, and ditches. Large river systems and inland lakes are currently stable or falling but will respond quickly to additional water inputs. The short-term rise is not expected to reach flood levels at this time. This winter has seen significant above average snow accumulation. Currently, the snowpack throughout the watershed has been dramatically reduced, however a significant snowpack remains in the wooded areas north of Highway 7. Melting snow is expected to be the principal factor in this second response of the spring freshet. Snowmelt in the northern regions over next 7 days will generate a quick response in lakes and rivers but is not yet projected to generate significant flooding issues.
Ice conditions should be considered compromised due to significant rain and higher flows.
Risks:
Prince Edward County: Swollen small creeks and watercourses may rise to bankfull conditions and possibly inundate adjacent low-lying areas. Nuisance flooding is likely to persist for a few days. Watercourses may respond within a few days before continuing to recede to seasonal levels.
Salmon and Napanee Watersheds: Major waterways have peaked from rains and snowmelt experienced earlier in the month. The decline in water levels may reverse and start to rise with Tuesday’s rain. Bankfull or near bankfull conditions could be expected within a few days. Serious flooding is not expected. Nuisance flooding is likely to occur around creeks and small watercourses.
Moira Watershed:Rain will be absorbed into and then start melting the remaining snowpack north of Highway 7. Snowmelt and water release will occur at a rate that cannot be determined in advance. In southern areas precipitation will melt out the degraded and small remaining snowpack. Nuisance flooding is likely to occur around small watercourses. The Moira River and its northern tributaries are expected to respond within a few days in a second higher peak, but the initial response should be below flood stage. Higher flows may continue for several weeks into April.
Actions: Residents in flood prone or low-lying areas are reminded to take the necessary precautions to protect their property. Ensure sump pumps are in good working condition and have access to a portable backup generator and pump. Help reduce ponding by keeping ditches, culverts, and storm drains clear from obstructions.
During the period of this advisory, all remaining ice surfaces in all watersheds should be considered dangerous and should be avoided. The public is advised to exercise extreme caution near rivers and waterbodies and to stay away from open and fast flowing water, culverts, dams, ice covered water, and banks. Localized flooding is possible in flood-prone and low-lying areas.
A Flood Outlook Statement gives early notice of the potential for flooding based on weather forecasts calling for heavy rain, snowmelt, high wind or other conditions that could lead to high runoff, cause ice jams, lakeshore flooding or erosion.
This message will be in effect until (or updated before) April 15.
